MuchidimbuKubva muna Ndira kusvika munaChikumi, mitengo yesimbi, marasha ekukoka, billet, simbi yesimbi, pombi yesimbi nezvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda zvaichinja-chinja zvikuru. Kunyangwe mitemo yakasununguka uye yakangwara yemari yakakurudzira kuvandudzwa kwese kwekushanda kwehupfumi hwepamba gore rino, indasitiri yekuvaka yakadzoka zvishoma nezvishoma gore rino. Pamusoro pezvo, nharaunda yekunze ichiri yakaoma uye yakaoma, spillover mhedzisiro yekubviswa kwemitemo muhupfumi hukuru yakawedzera, uye kune zvakawanda zvimhingamipinyi pakuburitswa kwezvinodiwa zvemumba. Kuwanda kwekugovera uye kudiwa kwehukama hwemhando dzesimbi gore rino zvinonyanya mumuenzaniso we "tarisiro yakasimba uye chokwadi chisina simba". Seyakakosha welded pombi dzakasiyana muindasitiri yekuvaka, bepa iri richaongorora muchidimbu mashandiro emapombi akaiswa muChina mumwedzi ichangopfuura.
Ⅰ. Mutengo wepombi dzakasungirirwa wakadonha zvakanyanya gore negore
Tichitarisa kubva pamutengo wepombi yepasi rose mumakore mana achangopfuura, nzvimbo yekutanga yemutengo wepombi yakashongedzwa pakutanga kwa2023 zviri pachena kuti yakaderera pane iyo yenguva imwe cheteyo gore rapfuura. Musi waNdira 2, 2023, mutengo wepakati wenyika wepombi dzakasungwa waive 4,492 yuan/tani, zvichidzika 677 yuan/ton gore negore; Kubva munaChikumi 7, 2023, avhareji mutengo wemapombi akashiswa muna 2023 aive 4,153 yuan/tani, pasi 1,059 yuan/ton kana 20.32% gore negore.
Kubva 2021, mitengo yezvinhu yakaramba ichimhanya padanho repamusoro, PPI muhupfumi hukuru yakakwira rekodhi, uye mitengo yakakwira yezvigadzirwa zvekumusoro zvakaramba zvichipfuudzwa kusvika pakati nepakati. Kubva munaChikumi 2022, nekuenderera kwakaderera kudiwa kwezvigadzirwa zvakapedzwa, mitengo yezvinhu zvakasvibiswa kumba nekune dzimwe nyika yakaderera zvakanyanya, uye mutengo wepakati wemapombi esimbi watangawo kudzika zvakanyanya. Pashure pemafungu akati wandei ekukurumidza kuderera kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa, mutengo wemapombi akashongedzwa gore rino wakaderera zvakanyanya pane wenguva imwe cheteyo gore rapfuura. Muchikamu chekutanga, pasi petarisiro iri nani, kudzika kwemvura kunodiwa kwakavandudzwa, uye mutengo wepombi wepimbi wepasi wakakwira zvishoma. Nekudaro, nekutadza kwechinyakare peak mwaka kudiwa, mitengo yezvigadzirwa uye zvigadzirwa zvakapedzwa zvakatanga kudonha, asi kuderera kwemutengo hakuna kuwedzera kudiwa chaiko. Muna Chikumi, mutengo wenyika welded pombi wakanga watova padanho rakaderera mumakore achangopfuura.
Ⅱ. Nhamba yenyika yehuwandu hwemapombi akashongedzwa yakaderera gore negore
Kukanganiswa nekuchinja kukuru uye kukurumidza kuchinja kwe welded pombi mutengo mumakore maviri apfuura, vatengesi vakawanda vakasarudza nzira dzakagadzikana dzekutonga gore rino. Kuti kuderedze kumanikidzwa kwakaunzwa nekusarira shure kwezvinyorwa, zvinyorwa zvakanyanya kuchengetwa padanho repakati uye rakaderera. Mushure mekunge mutengo wemapombi akashongedzwa achinja uye akadonha munaKurume, huwandu hwemagariro epombi dzakashongedzwa muChina hwakadzikira nekukurumidza. Kubva musi waChikumi 2, iyo nyika yemagariro ehuwandu hwemapombi akashongedzwa aive matani 820,400, kuwedzera kwe0,47% pamwedzi-pa-mwedzi uye kuderera kwe10.61% gore-negore, iyo yakasvika yakaderera inventory level mumakore matatu apfuura. Munguva ichangopfuura, vatengesi vakawanda vane zvishoma zvekumanikidzwa kwekutsvaga.
Mufananidzo 2: Social Inventory ye Welded Pipe (Unit: 10,000 tons)
Ⅲ.Purofiti ye welded pombi iri padanho rakaderera mumakore matatu apfuura
Kubva pamaonero epurofiti yeindasitiri yepombi yakashongedzwa, purofiti yeindasitiri yepombi yakashongedzwa inoshanduka zvakanyanya gore rino, inogona kukamurwa kuita zvikamu zvinotevera. Kubva muna Chivabvu 10, 2023, avhareji yemazuva ese purofiti ye welded pombi indasitiri kubva Ndira kusvika Kurume yaive 105 yuan/ton, gore-pa-gore kuderera kwe39 yuan/tani; Kubva muna Ndira kusvika munaKurume, avhareji yemazuva ese purofiti yeindasitiri yemapombi ane galvanized yaive 157 yuan/ton, kuwedzera kwe28 yuan/ton gore negore; Kubva Kubvumbi kusvika Chivabvu, avhareji yemazuva ese indasitiri purofiti ye welded pombi yaiva-82 yuan/tani, gore-pa-gore kuderera kwe126 yuan/tani; Kubva muna Kubvumbi kusvika muna Chivabvu, avhareji yemazuva ese purofiti yeindasitiri yepombi dzakabatiswa yaive-20 yuan/tani, gore negore kuderera kwe44 yuan/ton; Parizvino, purofiti yewelded pombi indasitiri iri padanho rakaderera mumakore matatu apfuura.
Kubva kutanga kwegore, mativi ose enyika akashingairira kukurumidza kuvakwa kwezvirongwa zvikuru kubatsira hupfumi kuti “utange zvakanaka”. Muchikamu chekutanga, nekupera kwekudzivirira uye kutonga kwedenda, tarisiro yemusika yakanga ichivandudza, uye mitengo yezvinhu zvakasvibirira uye zvigadzirwa zvakapedzwa zvaimhanya zvakasimba. Zvichitungamirirwa ne "tarisiro yakasimba", welded pombi uye mafekitari epombi ane galvanized aiva nechido chakasimba chekutsigira mitengo, uye kuwedzera kwaive kwakakwirira kudarika kwesimbi ye strip, uye purofiti yakagamuchirwa. Zvisinei, nekupera kwaKurume, zvinodiwa zvinotarisirwa hazvisati zvaburitswa. Sezvo kupisa kunopera uye nhau dzisina kunaka dzezvemari dzepasi rose dzakakwidziridzwa, tarisiro yakasimba inodzokera kuchokwadi, uye mitengo yefekitari yepombi nevatengesi inotanga kuwira pasi pekumanikidzwa. Muna June, purofiti ye welded pombi indasitiri yave yakaderera mumakore matatu apfuura, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti mukana wekuramba uchidonha zvakanyanya wakaderera.
Mufananidzo 3: Social Inventory ye Welded Pipe (Unit: 10,000 tons)
Mufananidzo 4: Kuchinja kunobatsira kwepombi yakabatiswa mumakore achangopfuura (chikamu: yuan/ton)
Data source: Steel Union Data
IV. Kubuda uye Inventory yeWelded Pipe Production Enterprises
Tichitarisa kubva pane zvakabuda uye zvinyorwa zvevagadziri vepombi dzakashongedzwa, kubva muna Ndira kusvika muna Chivabvu gore rino, kuburitswa kwefekitari yepombi kwakadzikira zvakanyanya gore negore, uye chiyero chekushandisa simba chakaramba chiri pa60.2%. Pasi pehuwandu hwekushandiswa kwehuwandu hwegore gore negore, nhamba yefekitari yepombi yaigara yakakwirira kudarika iyo yenguva imwechete gore rapera. Kubva musi waChikumi 2, 2023, maererano nehuwandu hwekutevera hwevagadziri vepombi makumi maviri nepfumbamwe munetiweki yedu, kuburitswa kwemapombi akaiswa kubva munaNdira kusvika Chivabvu aive matani 7.64 miriyoni, kuderera kwegore negore kwematani 582,200 kana 7.08%. Parizvino, uwandu hweiyo welded pombi fekitori ndeye 81.51 matani, gore-pa-gore kuderera kwematani 34,900.
Mumakore maviri achangopfuura, yakakanganiswa nedzvinyiriro yekuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika, kudzikira kudiwa kwepasi uye zvimwe zvakawanda, iyo yakazara welded pombi inobuda mumafekitori epombi epamba yakaramba yakaderera. Pakuvamba kwegore idzva, kuitira kudzivirira njodzi dzinounzwa nekuchinja kwemitengo, huwandu hwese hwekushandisa huwandu hwevagadziri vepombi dzakasungirirwa hwaive padivi rakaderera kubva muna Ndira kusvika Chivabvu. Kunyange zvazvo kubudiswa kwefekitari yepombi kwakatanga kuwedzera zviri pachena nekuwedzera kwepurofiti yefekitari yepombi munaFebruary, kunyange kudarika nguva imwe chete yegore rapera, kubuda kwefekitari yepombi kwakatanga kuderera nokukurumidza pakupera kwaMarch apo purofiti yefekitari yepombi yakawira nokukurumidza. Parizvino, pfungwa yekugovera uye kudiwa kwepombi dzakasungirirwa ichiri mune isina kusimba maitiro ekupa uye kudiwa.
Mufananidzo 5: Shanduko yewelded pombi inobuda mumafekitori makumi maviri nemapfumbamwe epombi (chikamu: 10,000 matani)
Data source: Steel Union Data
Mufananidzo 6: Shanduko mukugadzirwa kwechigadzirwa chakapedzwa kwemafekitori makumi maviri nemapfumbamwe epombi (chikamu: 10,000 matani)
Data source: Steel Union Data
V. Kudzika kwemvura mamiriro e welded pombi
Kubva pakuona kwemusika wezvivakwa, misika yezvivakwa yave mukuderera mumakore achangopfuura, uye kudiwa kweimba hakuna kukwana Kubva munaNdira kusvika Kubvumbi, iyo yenyika real estate development investimendi yaive 3,551.4 bhiriyoni yuan, yakaderera 6.2% gore negore; Pakati pavo, mari yekugara yaive 2,707.2 bhiriyoni yuan, pasi ne4.9%. Mumakore maviri apfuura, nzvimbo dzakasiyana dzakatevedzana dzakaburitsa marongero akasiyana ekusimudzira kudzoreredzwa kwemusika wezvivakwa, semuenzaniso, kudzoreredza muyero wechikwereti, huwandu hweprovident fund uye kukodzera kwekutenga dzimba. Pakupera kwekota yekutanga, maguta makumi mapfumbamwe nematanhatu akasangana nemamiriro ekudzikamisa muganhu wemubereko wekutanga wechikwereti chemba, pakati pawo maguta makumi masere nematatu akadzikisa muganho wakaderera wemubereko wekutanga wechikwereti chemba uye maguta gumi nemaviri akadzima zvakananga muganho wakaderera wekutanga wechikwereti chemba. Mushure meMay Day, nzvimbo zhinji dzinoramba dzichigadzirisa iyo provident fund yechikwereti. Gore rino, toni huru yemutemo webhangi repakati pamusika wekutengesa zvivakwa ndeye "kutonga zvese zvinotonhora uye zvinopisa", izvo zvisingangotsigire maguta akatarisana nematambudziko makuru mumusika wekutengesa zvivakwa kuti ashandise zvizere bhokisi rezvishandiso, asi zvinodawo kuti maguta ane mitengo iri kukwira yedzimba abve pagwaro rekutsigira nenguva. Nekuitwa kwemitemo yakasiyana-siyana, zvinotarisirwa kuti maitiro akawanda ekugadzirisa misika yedzimba acharamba asina kuchinjwa gore rino, asi huwandu hwekugadzirisa huchanonoka.
Tichitarisa kubva pakukura kwehuwandu hwekudyara kwezvivakwa, maererano nedata rakabudiswa neNational Bureau of Statistics, kubva muna Ndira kusvika Kubvumbi, iyo nyika yekudyara kwezvivakwa (kunze kwemagetsi, kupisa, gasi uye kugadzirwa kwemvura uye maindasitiri ekupa) yakawedzera ne8,5% gore negore. Pakati pazvo, mari yekufambisa njanji yakawedzera ne14.0%, kuchengetwa kwemvura ne10,7%, kutakurwa kwemigwagwa ne5,8% uye kutariswa kwezvivakwa zveveruzhinji ne4,7%. Nehuremu hwekupokana-cyclical regulation uye mitemo yekudzora, kuvaka zvivakwa kunotarisirwa kuita basa rekutsigira.
Muna Kubvumbi, iyo inotenga maneja 'indekisi (PMI) yeindasitiri yekugadzira yaive 49.2%, yakadzika 2.7 muzana mapoinzi kubva mwedzi wapfuura, yakaderera pane yakakosha nzvimbo, uye budiriro nhanho yeindasitiri yekugadzira yakadzikira, ichiwira padanho rechibvumirano kekutanga kubva Kukadzi. Panyaya yemaindasitiri, bhizinesi rekuita indekisi yeindasitiri yekuvaka yaive 63.9%, yakaderera 1.7 muzana kubva mwedzi wapfuura. Indekisi yekugadzira kugadzira uye kudiwa kwakadzikira, kunyanya nekuda kwekushaikwa kwemusika kudiwa. Kunyangwe iyo bhizinesi rekuita indekisi yeindasitiri yekuvaka yakadzikira zvishoma muna Kubvumbi kana ichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura, iyo PMI yeindasitiri yekuvaka yaive pamusoro pe60% kwemwedzi mitatu yakateedzana, iyo ichiri kuchengetedza hupfumi hwepamusoro. Indasitiri yekuvaka inotarisirwa kuvandudzwa, asi kudzoreredzwa kwekugadzirwa uye kudiwa muindasitiri kuchiri kufanira kudzoreredzwa zvishoma nezvishoma.
VI. Market Outlook
Mutengo: Muna Chikumi, nechikamu chegumi chekuwedzera kwemutengo wecoke, manzwiro emusika akawedzera kudzikira. Parizvino, kuita kwese kwecoke uye iron ore basics kuchiri mumamiriro ekupa kwakasimba uye kushaikwa kwesimba, nepo zvigayo zvesimbi zvine tarisiro yakashata yezvinodiwa mune ramangwana, saka kutangazve kwekugadzira hakuzove kwakawanda munguva pfupi, uye kumanikidzwa kucharamba kupihwa kune zvigadzirwa. Kubva mukupera kwaMay kusvika kutanga kwaChikumi, kune tembiricha yakanyanya kumaodzanyemba. Nekuwedzera kwekudiwa kwemagetsi ekugara uye nepamusoro pezvidyarwa zvemagetsi kugadzirira marasha muzhizha, kudiwa kwemarasha kuchave neinflection point, asi zvinozotungamira mukudonha kwemitengo yesimbi. Munguva pfupi, nekushaya simba kwekutsigirwa kwemari, strip simbi mitengo inogona kuramba ichiderera.
Mamiriro ekutengesa: Mukutanga kwaChikumi, chiyero chekushanda kwemabhizimusi ekugadzira pombi dzakadzikira zvakanyanya kana zvichienzaniswa negore rapfuura, uye kuwanda kwemafekitori epombi kwakaramba kuchidzikira. Munguva pfupi iri kutevera, kumanikidzwa kwezvinyorwa zvefekitari yepombi hakusi kukuru, uye kubuda kwefekitari yepombi kuchawedzera mushure mokunge purofiti yefekitari yepombi yagadziriswa zviri pachena.
Chinodiwa: Pahwaro hwekudzamisa chirongwa chekuyedza uye kupfupikisa uye kuparidzirwa chiitiko chinodzokororwa, China ichatanga chirongwa chekuchengetedza nzira yehupenyu hwezvivakwa zvemudhorobha munzira yese. Izvo zvinodikanwa kuita ongororo yakajairika yezvivakwa zvemudhorobha, kumisa dhatabhesi yezvivakwa zvemudhorobha zvinofukidza pasi nepasi pevhu, kuona nzvimbo dzine njodzi nenzvimbo dzenjodzi dzezvivakwa zvemudhorobha, uye kunyora runyoro rwenjodzi dzekuchengetedza mumaguta. Mutsara wezvivakwa zvemudhorobha unoreva zvivakwa zvemudhorobha zvakaita segasi, mabhiriji, kupihwa kwemvura, dhizaini, kupisa kwemoto uye mugero wekushandisa, izvo zvisingaparadzaniswe kubva kumabasa emudhorobha nehupenyu hwevanhu. Kungofanana ne“tsinga” uye “midziyo yeropa” yomuviri womunhu, ivimbiso yokushanda kwakachengeteka kwemaguta.
VII. Summary
Pakazara, muchikamu chekutanga, pasi pezvinotarisirwa zvakanaka macro, mutengo wemapombi akashongedzwa akatsigirwa zvishoma. Kubva muna Kubvumbi kusvika muna Chivabvu, kushanda kwakakosha kwemarasha nesimbi kwakasimba uye kusine simba, uye tsigiro yemitengo yakadzikira. Kunyangwe kuisirwa kwezvivakwa kuri kuwedzera, maitiro akajairwa ekudzoreredza musika muindasitiri yezvivakwa inoramba isina kuchinjika gore rino, asi kukurumidza kudzoreredza kunonoka. Nekutanga kweiyo nzira yekuchengetedza purojekiti yezvivakwa zvemudhorobha, kudiwa kwepombi dzesimbi kunogona kuwedzera munguva pfupi iri kutevera, asi chiyero pakati pekupa uye kudiwa chichiri kutora nguva. Zvichibatanidzwa neFed's high interest rate policy, dambudziko remabhanga riri kuramba richikwira, uye mari yepasi rose yenjodzi ichakwira zvakanyanya, izvo zvichawedzera kusagadzikana kwemisika yezvinhu uye zvinogona kukanganisa kutengesa kunze kwenyika kweChina. Pazere, zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo wepombi dzakashongedzwa nenyika ucharamba uchidzika nekudzikama kubva muna Chikumi kusvika Chikunguru.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-28-2023